In Donald
Trump, Europe's populist leaders think they have found a champion.
For now.
The opening
salvoes of Trump's presidency, most notably his ban on immigration from seven
Muslim-majority nations, are being gleefully milked by anti-Muslim lawmaker
Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and other populist leaders in Germany, Italy
and elsewhere who want to roll back the European Union and stem the influx of
migrants and refugees.
Ignoring the
anti-Trump protests, the wide criticism and legal challenges that have erupted
over the new U.S. president's ban, populists in Europe argue that Trump is
proving that immigration can be stemmed, even stopped. They see a quick and
decisive leader - and their latest weapon with which to attack the European
governments and institutions they accuse of being soft on immigration.
For
Alexander Gauland, deputy leader of the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany
party, Trump is "a path-finder, by proving that with political will you
can change polices."
"It
makes it easier for people who want to stop Islamic immigration that Trump
says: 'You can do it,'" Gauland said. "If this policy works, and if
Mr. Trump works with these goals, then it could be helpful in the next general
election in Germany or the French presidential elections."
Czech
President Milos Zeman's spokesman, Jiri Ovcacek, calls Trump "a
trailblazer."
"The EU
has been discussing the necessity of protecting its external borders for
months. However nothing has happened so far. Europe should perceive the steps
taken by President Trump as an inspiration," he said.
With
national elections this year in the Netherlands, France and Germany, the rising
tide of populism is being watched with growing alarm at EU headquarters in
Brussels, which is still reeling from last year's Brexit vote to take Britain
out of the 28-nation bloc. Donald Tusk, the EU president, flagged up the threat
of populism in a sobering letter this week to EU governments before they meet
Friday to discuss their collective future without the British.
But
political analysts aren't convinced that populists' enthusiastic welcome of
Trump's ban - "Well done @POTUS it's the only way to stay safe +
free," Wilders tweeted - will help them as much as they think.
While the
ban has pushed immigration back to the top of the global agenda, analysts say
that's no guarantee of more votes for populists at the ballot box. In fact,
they say, associating too closely with Trump could backfire on populists if his
promised "America first" trade protectionism policies end up hurting
European workers - which populists are wooing, as the new U.S. president did in
the United States, to gain power.
"In a
few weeks, months or years, there could be big differences between leaders of
populist parties and Trump," said Marco Tarchi, a political scientist at
the University of Florence in Italy. "Long-term, things could get really
complicated."
In the
Netherlands, Wilders was already polling strongly before he started furiously
tweeting and praising Trump's immigration ban.
Koen Vossen,
a political scientist at Radboud University in Nijmegen, says Wilders' core
supporters were already convinced, long before Trump took power, by the
populist leader's arguments that Islam poses a grave threat to the Netherlands.
But the broad criticisms and problems caused by Trump's ban could also scare
wavering Dutch voters away from Wilders' Party for Freedom, he said.
"He's
preaching to the converted and also to a few percent - maybe 10 percent - who
are still doubting whether they will vote for Wilders," said Vossen,
author of a book on Wilders. "Maybe he will win a few percent extra because
of Trump, but he could also lose a few percent."
In France,
National Front leader Marine Le Pen also believes that Brexit and Trump are
favorable winds filling the sails of her far-right, anti-immigration party,
which is polling strongly ahead of the presidential first-round vote in April.
"The
whole world - it's true of Brexit and it's true for Mr. Trump - is waking up to
what we've been saying for years," Le Pen said.
But, again,
strengthening support in France for Le Pen's nationalist platform predates
Trump's election victory. And workers mulling a shift to Le Pen in France's
rustbelt industrial towns want to protest job losses and ineffective
traditional French politics, without necessarily fully espousing the National
Front's anti-Islam and anti-immigration views.
Nonna Mayer,
a leading expert on the party at Sciences Po in Paris, said Trump is only
"an added bonus" and "a sales argument" for Le Pen, rather
than an electoral game-changer.
"If
Trump trips up, it will come back at them," she said. "They know that
if it backfires, it will be a problem for them."
(AP)
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